The Fabulous Peltoncast Episode 21: Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

No time for other topics this week. Days away from the Seahawks facing the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, The Fabulous Peltoncast previews the action from all angles and offers keys to the game and their predictions for what will take place on Sunday evening.

DOWNLOAD/STREAM THE FABULOUS PELTONCAST NO. 21 | View on iTunes

Contents

Intro – The topics we can’t get to today, plus Seahawks mania in Seattle and how to determine whether someone is a die-hard Seahawks fan
4:00 – Broncos No. 1 offense vs. Seahawks No. 1 defense (do you want the Broncos to run or pass?, openings in the Seahawks defense, can the Seahawks get pressure on Peyton Manning?)
25:00 – Seahawks offense vs. Broncos defense (impact of Percy Harvin, can the Seahawks run on the Broncos?, injury to Denver CB Chris Harris)
43:00 – Keys to the game and predictions, featuring the return of NostraTristan
52:00 – Should Tristan name his as-yet-nonexistent second child after a Seahawks player if they win the Super Bowl?

Links

Bill Barnwell on how the Broncos offense and the Seahawks defense stack up historically
We didn’t mention it but you should probably also read Barnwell on Marshawn Lynch
Film Room on Demaryius Thomas’ problems with press coverage
Richard Sherman on Peyton Manning
“Halftime” by Nas on YouTube

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The Fabulous Peltoncast Episode 20

The Fabulous Peltoncast takes advantage of the bye week before the Super Bowl to step back and look at how the Seahawks were built into championship contenders, as well as considering Pete Carroll‘s “Win Forever” philosophy and checking in on Husky hoops.

DOWNLOAD/STREAM THE FABULOUS PELTONCAST NO. 20 | View on iTunes

Contents

Intro – Lessons learned from the NFC Championship Game recap Peltoncast and debating Lucille IPA
5:00 – Final thoughts on the NFC Championship Game
16:00 – The “Win Forever” philosophy, rivalry and how it’s helped the Seahawks
26:30 – How the Seahawks grew into contenders
40:30 – Husky men’s basketball swept in Bay Area, now home vs. Oregon schools, plus Kevin‘s thoughts on watching top prep prospects (including UW-bound David Crisp)

Links

Lucille IPA
Bill Barnwell on the NFC Championship Game
Football Outsiders DVOA for Championship Games
Danny Kelly on the 49ers’ final play
Greg A. Bedard on the TD pass to Jermaine Kearse
Friend of the Peltoncast Damon Agnos’ eBook A Competitor’s Guide to Existence
Rogue Honey Orange Wheat beer

The Fabulous Peltoncast NFC Championship Game Recap

The Seahawks are headed to Super Bowl XLVIII and The Fabulous Peltoncast celebrates with a special episode recorded live during postgame tailgating in Sodo. With the help of special guest Chris Smith, Kevin and Tristan recap the game, compare this Super Bowl run to the Seahawks’ other trip in 2006 and take a first look at the matchup with the Denver Broncos.

DOWNLOAD/STREAM THE FABULOUS PELTONCAST | View on iTunes

Links

Bill Barnwell blames “momentum trolls”
Jayson Jenks feature on Pete Carroll

On UW’s Defensive Turnaround

Two weeks into conference play, only the Arizona Wildcats have allowed opponents fewer points per possession than the Washington Huskies. To say this is stunning would probably undersell the magnitude of the turnaround from where we were two weeks ago after non-conference play, when Washington had the second-worst defense of any major-conference team.

Asked about the transformation, UW coach Lorenzo Romar has pointed toward his team finally getting comfortable in the new defensive style (overloading the strong side) the coaching staff installed on the fly in late November after a series of horrendous defensive performances. This is surely at least in part the case, though it’s remarkable how little indication the Huskies gave of this learning curve before starting conference play. (Part of that may be players getting up for Pac-12 foes a tad more than Hartford.)

Additionally, Washington has started switching nearly all screens on the perimeter, a strategy that takes advantage of the team’s size at guard and quickness at forward. The Huskies rarely create a major mismatch by switching, and doing so has allowed them to cut down on the penetration that broke down the defense time and again in November and December.

Beyond all that, Washington has also gotten an enormous dose of good luck in opponent shooting. In last Wednesday’s win, Utah didn’t make a 3-pointer until the final 30 seconds of what was a close game ultimately decided by two points (on, fittingly, a missed 3). Colorado followed that up with another 1-of-12 performance on Sunday. Overall, the four teams the Huskies have faced have shot 6-of-50 (12.0 percent) from beyond the arc.

That, obviously, cannot continue. As Ken Pomeroy’s research has documented, defenses have very little control over the percentage their opponents shoot from 3-point range over entire seasons, let alone four-game stretches.

Credit Romar for understanding that has team has gotten some breaks.

“We’ve been very fortunate in that teams are shooting like 13 percent from the 3 in conference games against us,” Romar told Christian Caple of The News Tribune. “Time will tell if that has anything to do with what we’re doing defensively. We haven’t been in as many rotation situations with this type of defense as we have been in the past. I don’t know if that has anything to do with it or not.”

What defenses can control is how many 3s their opponents shoot, and Washington has done well there by avoiding rotations. They rank second from the bottom in terms of the percentage of shots by opponents from 3-point range in conference play and have allowed opponents the lowest assist rate, a good indicator of staying at home defensively and making teams beat defenders 1-on-1.

Still, the Husky defense is bound to regress as opponents make more of their 3s. If you need proof of that, look no further than last season, when I wrote a post about UW’s 4-0 start to Pac-12 play that was eerily similar to this one in every regard. The undefeated start was built on holding opponents to 18.9 percent 3-point shooting. The rest of the conference season, Washington opponents shot 35.7 percent, slightly better than the conference average (33.8 percent). Predictably, the UW defense regressed, and the Huskies finished Pac-12 play at 9-9.

I also introduced the concept of defensive rating adjusted for 3-point luck in last year’s column. Since Caple put together the season 3-point percentage of every player to attempt a 3-pointer against the Huskies in conference play, we can use that and their attempts to show that they should have made about 17 of their 50 attempts, rather than their actual six. Add 33 points to the Huskies’ first four games and their defensive efficiency drops to 104.5 points per 100 possessions, good for seventh in the Pac-12 — slightly below average. And instead of having outscored opponents by 21 points, UW would be -12 through four games.

That’s still not bad for a team projected to finish last in the conference two weeks ago, but the Huskies probably aren’t the threat their performance over the first four games — especially at the defensive end — would indicate.

The Fabulous Peltoncast Episode 19: NFC Championship Game Preview

The Seahawks are a win away from the Super Bowl, and this week’s episode of The Fabulous Peltoncast breaks down the NFC Championship Game against San Francisco and makes some predictions before briefly discussing the resurgence of Husky men’s hoops.

DOWNLOAD/STREAM THE FABULOUS PELTONCAST NO. 19 | View on iTunes

Contents

Intro – Kevin’s new T-shirt
4:00 – Seahawks defense against the 49ers offense and the importance of making San Francisco one-dimensional
27:30 – Seahawks offense against the 49ers defense and how Percy Harvin can make a difference
37:00 – Keys to the game, predictions and chances of winning
49:00 – Husky men’s basketball sweeps at home, now headed to Bay Area

Links

Mike Tanier on the “Fated Four”
Friend of the Peltoncast Damon Agnos’ eBook A Competitor’s Guide to Existence
Football Outsiders Film Room: Percy Harvin

The Fabulous Peltoncast Saints Recap

A special edition of The Fabulous Peltoncast reviews the Seahawks’ 23-15 win over the New Orleans Saints to reach the NFC Championship Game. Kevin and Tristan break down the impact of Percy Harvin in the first half, the performance of the Seahawks’ defense and consider Carolina and San Francisco as possible opponents next Sunday.

DOWNLOAD/STREAM THE FABULOUS PELTONCAST | View on iTunes

Links

Field Gulls on the Redline
NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks tweeted about teams using 22 personnel (2 RBs, 2 TEs) vs. Seahawks

The Fabulous Peltoncast No. 18: Saints Preview

It’s playoff time, and this week’s episode of The Fabulous Peltoncast breaks down the Seahawks’ matchup with the New Orleans Saints from all angles before wrapping up with brief discussions of Husky men’s basketball and the return of Community and Girls.

DOWNLOAD/STREAM THE FABULOUS PELTONCAST NO. 18 | View on iTunes

Contents

Intro – Excitement about the playoffs and the NFC’s “Fateful Four”
6:30 – Seahawks defense against the Saints offense and defending Jimmy Graham
21:30 – Seahawks offense against the Saints defense and explaining offensive struggles late in the regular season
35:00 – NostraTristan makes some predictions, and Kevin does too
40:00 – Fear level and chances of winning
44:00 – Impressive weekend in the desert for Husky men’s basketball
56:00 – Thoughts on Community‘s return and the impending start of Girls season 3

Charting Jimmy Graham Defenders

Chancellor: 2x, 0-1
Irvin: 3x
Maxwell: 4x, 1-2, 20 yards
Sherman: 4x
Wagner: 1x
Wright: 2x
Zone: 2-6, 22 yards, TD

Seahawks Third Down Conversion Rates Week-by-Week

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Links

Football Outsiders on third down conversion rates
Bill Simmons on recent NFL Playoff trends