Pac-12 Awards

I hope to flesh out this post a little bit more later, but to inform my selections on Pac-12 end-of-season awards, I went through and ran my NBA rating system (WARP) strictly for conference games. The ratings for everyone in the conference are below. One unfortunate note: the Pac-12 site hadn’t yet updated for last night’s games, so Cal, Stanford, Arizona and Arizona State stats are based on 17 games. Adjust accordingly.

Player of the Year: Devoe Joseph, Oregon
Briefly, I think this is a complete tossup and you could make a case for about a half-dozen people. The one big question the stats raise is why Jorge Gutierrez gets so much more credit for Cal’s success than Allen Crabbe, who puts up Terrence Ross-like stats on a good team with minimal hype. I value Gutierrez’s contributions, but don’t overlook Crabbe.

Coach of the Year: Dana Altman, Oregon
Most of the commentary on this pick has gone along the lines of “Altman’s teams didn’t exceed expectations as much as others” (Tad Boyle and Lorenzo Romar, notably). I don’t know exactly when Coach of the Year evolved into “Coach who beat preseason projections by the most of the Year,” but it’s past time for that to stop. Sometimes we were just wrong. I had Colorado 11th in the Pac-12. I was wrong. I didn’t know the team well enough coming from the Big 12, and didn’t realize how good the Buffaloes’ incoming freshman guards were. (More on that in a moment.) I think both Boyle and Romar had fine seasons (you know my feelings on Romar, the actual winner), but if I had to pick a coach to lead my team based on their performance this specific season, it would be Altman. In a sense, Altman is penalized in terms of expectations for doing such a good job in his first season in Eugene. Part of the reason Oregon was picked fifth in the conference was because the Ducks dramatically overachieved last year, in large part due to Altman’s arrival.

Freshman of the Year: Tony Wroten, Washington
A no-brainer pick, really. Player of the Year would have been a bit of a stretch for Wroten–Ross was, to me, the Huskies’ most valuable player–but for a freshman Wroten was terrific and every bit as good as advertised if not better.

Defensive Player of the Year: Andre Roberson, Colorado
Another Gutierrez pick in reality. The best defensive guard cannot possibly have as much impact on the game as the best defensive big man. Roberson is an elite rebounder and shot blocker who also generated steals more frequently than Gutierrez. Enjoy this man before he bolts for the NBA.

Most Improved Player: Brock Motum, Washington State
Motum’s development from fringe big man to the best in the conference has truly been remarkable.

All-Pac-12 First Team (done the real way)

G – Devoe Joseph, Oregon
G – Jorge Gutierrez, California
F – Terrence Ross, Washington
F – Allen Crabbe, California
C – Brock Motum, Washington State

G – Tony Wroten, Washington
G – Jared Cunningham, Oregon State
F – Solomon Hill, Arizona
F – Andre Roberson, Colorado
C – Travis Wear, UCLA

G – Kyle Fogg, Arizona
G – Justin Cobbs, California
F – E.J. Singler, Oregon
F – Josh Owens, Stanford
C – Jesse Perry, Arizona

All-Freshman Team

Tony Wroten, Washington
Spencer Dinwiddie, Colorado
Chasson Randle, Stanford
Askia Booker, Colorado
David Kravish, California

I fully expected Nick Johnson to make it, too, before I started the process. Wroten, Dinwiddie and Randle were a cut above everyone else as successful freshman starters. Kravish was one of the conference’s most efficient scorers. That leaves Booker, who apparently didn’t even get any votes for the team. When I watched Colorado play, Booker was as important to the team’s success as anyone on the roster. His ability to penetrate made the Buffalo attack much more dangerous. Really, though, this last spot is about how you value non-conference play vis-a-vis conference play for postseason awards, since Johnson was at his best in November and December and Booker came on as soon as Pac-12 play began.

All-Defensive Team

G – Jorge Gutierrez, Cal
G – Jared Cunningham, Oregon State
F – Marcus Capers, Washington State
F – Andre Roberson, Colorado
C – Aziz N’Diaye, Washington

Mostly agree with the real picks; Capers was next in line, but lost out to Kyle Fogg.

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
Andre Roberson      COL       107.3    96.6   .812    5.4
Allen Crabbe        CAL       109.7   103.6   .691    4.3
Brock Motum         WSU       112.0   106.3   .674    4.1
Devoe Joseph        ORE       110.7   105.7   .656    4.1
Terrence Ross       UW        107.1   101.6   .677    3.9
Kyle Fogg           ARI       109.1   103.6   .673    3.7
Tony Wroten         UW        107.2   102.4   .654    3.6
Solomon Hill        ARI       107.6   102.6   .661    3.6
Jared Cunningham    OSU       109.0   105.3   .620    3.5
Travis Wear         UCLA      110.5   103.9   .702    3.3
Devon Collier       OSU       110.0   104.2   .681    3.3
Justin Cobbs        CAL       108.3   104.4   .624    3.3
Jorge Gutierrez     CAL       106.5   102.9   .618    3.1
Lazeric Jones       UCLA      107.5   104.4   .599    3.1
Josh Owens          STA       106.7   102.7   .631    2.9
EJ Singler          ORE       109.0   105.8   .605    2.9
Tyler Lamb          UCLA      104.7   102.2   .581    2.5
Carlos Emory        ORE       111.6   104.1   .726    2.5
Eric Moreland       OSU       103.4    98.8   .653    2.4
Jesse Perry         ARI       107.0   104.7   .577    2.3

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
Jordan Bachynski    ASU       107.1   102.2   .660    2.2
Joshua Smith        UCLA      109.9   103.9   .688    2.1
Jason Washburn      UTAH      105.5   103.7   .560    2.1
CJ Wilcox           UW        109.0   105.6   .610    2.0
Spencer Dinwiddie   COL       106.6   104.7   .560    2.0
Jerime Anderson     UCLA      104.6   103.6   .533    1.9
Olu Ashaolu         ORE       108.1   104.7   .611    1.8
Harper Kamp         CAL       106.3   105.1   .542    1.8
David Wear          UCLA      107.3   106.0   .544    1.8
David Kravish       CAL       105.4   103.6   .559    1.8
Garrett Sim         ORE       107.3   106.6   .523    1.7
Carlon Brown        COL       106.2   105.3   .531    1.6
Josh Huestis        STA       104.2   102.0   .572    1.6
Austin Dufault      COL       106.0   105.2   .527    1.5
Askia Booker        COL       107.3   105.4   .563    1.5
Aziz N'Diaye        UW        103.9   103.3   .520    1.3
Brendon Lavender    ARI       109.2   107.4   .558    1.2
Ahmad Starks        OSU       106.8   107.2   .489    1.2
Chasson Randle      STA       106.4   106.7   .490    1.2
Garrett Jackson     USC       102.7   102.9   .494    1.1

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
Maurice Jones       USC       102.7   103.6   .466    1.1
Cedric Martin       UTAH      105.8   106.5   .475    1.0
Abe Lodwick         WSU       107.2   106.8   .511    1.0
Nick Johnson        ARI       103.9   104.5   .481    0.9
Joe Burton          OSU       104.0   104.4   .486    0.9
Roberto Nelson      OSU       105.9   106.1   .493    0.9
Josiah Turner       ARI       102.1   102.8   .476    0.8
John Gage           STA       107.7   105.4   .574    0.8
Trent Lockett       ASU       103.6   104.0   .487    0.8
DaVonte Lacy        WSU       105.9   107.0   .465    0.8
Dwight Powell       STA       102.5   102.5   .501    0.8
Tony Woods          ORE       102.4   102.4   .499    0.7
Darnell Gant        UW        105.2   106.2   .467    0.7
DJ Shelton          WSU       106.3   105.5   .526    0.7
Anthony Stover      UCLA      100.4    98.4   .571    0.6
Faisal Aden         WSU       106.2   104.8   .548    0.6
Kevin Parrom        ARI       107.6   105.4   .571    0.6
Aaron Bright        STA       105.8   107.3   .449    0.6
Brett Kingma        ORE       113.9   104.2   .776    0.6
Richard Solomon     CAL       108.8   100.1   .763    0.5

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
Dewayne Dedmon      USC       105.9   105.6   .507    0.5
Robert Thurman      CAL       106.5   107.0   .481    0.4
Nate Tomlinson      COL       104.9   107.0   .433    0.4
Emerson Murray      CAL       110.7   105.6   .659    0.4
Dijon Farr          UTAH      102.3   104.4   .432    0.4
Reggie Moore        WSU       104.5   106.7   .426    0.3
Greg Allen          USC       104.1   106.0   .437    0.3
Anthony Brown       STA       102.7   104.8   .429    0.3
Tyrone Nared        ORE       101.1   102.7   .446    0.3
Jonathan Gilling    ASU       105.4   107.9   .421    0.3
Angelo Chol         ARI       101.7   103.4   .444    0.2
Desmond Simmons     UW        102.0   104.2   .425    0.2
Chanse Creekmur     ASU       104.0   106.5   .418    0.2
Marcus Capers       WSU       103.2   105.8   .413    0.1
Angus Brandt        OSU       105.5   108.1   .412    0.1
Jack Ryan           STA       109.4    97.8   .827    0.1
Pierre Newton       ASU       121.9   107.2   .858    0.1
Shawn Kemp          UW        104.2   106.0   .441    0.1
Martin Breunig      UW        106.5   106.6   .499    0.1
Dave Whitmore       ASU       106.6   104.2   .579    0.1

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
Daniel Jones        OSU       108.3    94.9   .865    0.1
George Matthews     UTAH       97.9    99.3   .449    0.0
Max Wiepking        ARI       142.6    97.1   .995    0.0
Andy Brown          STA       103.2   105.0   .439    0.0
Bak Bak             CAL       101.8   104.4   .414    0.0
Rhys Murphy         OSU       103.3   105.4   .429    0.0
Matt DeMarcus       UCLA      105.6   104.5   .538    0.0
Dave Wink           WSU       106.8   109.7   .406    0.0
Danilo Dragovic     USC        95.7   109.7   .128    0.0
Drew Mellon         ARI        95.5   118.2   .048    0.0
Jordin Mayes        ARI       100.8   103.8   .400    0.0
Beau Webb           COL       104.8   109.7   .347    0.0
Jullian Powers      OSU        95.8   109.7   .130    0.0
Alex Rossi          CAL       104.4   108.9   .355    0.0
Quinton Crawford    ARI        79.8   109.7   .012    0.0
Ben Mills           COL        95.4   101.2   .304    0.0
Dondre Wise         ARI        94.9   109.7   .116    0.0
Tyler Sugiyama      USC        95.7   107.4   .165    0.0
Tyler Trapani       UCLA       94.6   109.7   .112    0.0
Brendan Sherrer     UW         99.7   108.6   .230    0.0

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
Alex Wegner         UW         85.2   109.7   .028    0.0
Jack Trotter        STA       102.8   106.8   .369    0.0
Nicholas Lucenti    ORE        71.7   109.7   .003   -0.1
David Brown         UCLA       85.1    98.4   .115   -0.1
Keala King          ASU        99.4   104.8   .323   -0.1
Kenny Jones         UCLA       99.4   110.5   .186   -0.1
Alex Jacobson       ARI        97.1   110.5   .140   -0.1
CJ Mitchell         OSU        91.7   107.4   .098   -0.1
Andrew Zimmermann   STA       101.6   105.2   .381   -0.1
Aaron Fuller        USC       101.5   105.3   .373   -0.1
Wade Morgan         STA        72.4   112.7   .002   -0.1
Brendan Lane        UCLA      101.9   106.8   .341   -0.1
Robbie Lemons       STA        78.8   112.2   .007   -0.1
Trey Eckloff        COL        81.2   108.0   .018   -0.1
Jeff Powers         CAL        98.2   110.5   .161   -0.1
Chris Colvin        ASU       103.0   106.4   .389   -0.1
Will DiIorio        WSU        99.0   107.5   .239   -0.2
Josh Watkins        UTAH      101.6   105.7   .363   -0.2
Kyryl Natyazhko     ARI        97.4   108.6   .179   -0.2
Shannon Sharpe      COL        96.6   106.8   .197   -0.2

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
A Seferian          UW        100.5   106.2   .315   -0.2
Max Heller          ASU        98.4   105.8   .267   -0.2
Blake Wilkinson     UTAH      100.1   105.7   .320   -0.2
Sabatino Chen       COL       101.5   105.8   .358   -0.2
Kyle Perkins        UTAH       99.9   106.3   .296   -0.2
Patrick Simon       WSU        97.0   109.3   .158   -0.2
Christian BEHRENS   CAL        96.2   109.6   .138   -0.2
Hikeem Stewart      UW         95.8   109.3   .137   -0.2
Damiene Cain        COL        93.2   107.8   .116   -0.2
Stefan Nastic       STA        99.5   106.6   .276   -0.3
Dexter Kernich      WSU       101.3   107.1   .315   -0.3
Kevin McShane       OSU       101.6   107.6   .309   -0.3
Norman Powell       UCLA      102.1   106.3   .363   -0.3
Carrick Felix       ASU       101.5   105.4   .372   -0.4
Abdul Gaddy         UW        103.1   106.9   .377   -0.4
Charlie Enquist     WSU        97.0   104.0   .274   -0.4
Jeremy Adams        COL        99.9   106.3   .296   -0.5
Mike Ladd           WSU       101.0   106.6   .318   -0.5
Johnathan Loyd      ORE       101.4   106.9   .325   -0.5
Alex Mortensen      UTAH       87.3   105.5   .066   -0.5

Player              Tm         ORtg    DRtg   Win%   WARP
---------------------------------------------------------
Daniel Munoz        USC        95.1   106.5   .171   -0.6
Byron Wesley        USC       100.4   104.4   .367   -0.6
Jeremy Jacob        ORE       101.2   107.1   .313   -0.6
Ruslan Pateev       ASU        99.3   104.6   .326   -0.6
Alexis Moore        USC       100.9   105.7   .343   -0.7
Chris Hines         UTAH      103.6   108.1   .356   -0.7
Tunks, Harris       COL        98.9   106.6   .260   -0.8
Brandon Smith       CAL        96.5   105.6   .222   -0.8
Eric Strangis       USC        98.5   107.5   .227   -0.9
Kyle Cain           ASU        98.5   105.0   .288   -0.9
James Blasczyk      USC       100.5   106.6   .306   -1.0
Jarrett Mann        STA        99.8   107.1   .272   -1.0
Javon Dawson        UTAH       98.5   106.7   .244   -1.1
Challe Barton       OSU        97.2   109.8   .153   -1.3
Anthony Odunsi      UTAH       95.2   107.1   .161   -1.5
Kareem Storey       UTAH       99.7   107.7   .254   -1.7
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4 thoughts on “Pac-12 Awards

    • Their stats were generally similar, with the exception of Travis blocking shots about five times more frequently. (He also had a lower turnover rate and slightly higher usage, which explains the difference.) What’s bizarre is that David was the marginally better shot blocker at UNC.

  1. Love the advanced stats and the fact that you didn’t pick Gutierrez for both. Will never get that decision by them, but the voters never get it right anyway. Crabbe is better than Gutierrez, and win shares helps prove that point. Gutierrez is the most overrated player in the conference.

  2. Pingback: The First-Round Pick Myth | after the buzzer

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